EXPERIMENTS IN OBJECTIVE UPPER-WIND ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING.
Final rept. for 1 Aug 62-22 Nov 63,
COLORADO STATE UNIV FORT COLLINS
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The objectives of the research program are classified into 1 data handling, 2 objective analysis, and 3 objective forecasting of parameters characterizing the layer of maximum wind LMW. Data handling aspects aredescribed. Error checking and harmonic analysis of vertical wind profiles are discussed. Computer programs in FORTRAN for an IBM 7090 are included in an appendix. A method of objective horizontal analysis of LMW parameters is discussed, which is based on the concept of fitting aquadratic function to station observations in order to arrive at grid point data. Machine programs are listed in an appendix. A detailed outline of various approaches to 12 - and 24 - hour kinematic extrapolation forecasts is given. Skill evaluations are presented in comparison to persistence. Various smoothing techniques on input and output have been tested as to their effect in reducing forecasting errors. Forecasting examples are given in the form of tables and graphs. A 25-day period January 1 through 25, 1961 has been selected to test the more promising techniques of extrapolating LMW parameters. Author