A CRITICAL SURVEY OF PERT/COST, WITH EMPHASIS ON THE MONTE CARLO TECHNIQUE OF NETWORK CALCULATION
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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The PERTCOST system, now in use, requires several simplifying assumptions to permit the use of analytic methods for determining predictions of critical path activities and project duration. As a result of these assumptions, the predictions may involve significant error, and will always be optimistic. The Monte Carlo technique of network calculation does not require these assumptions and, hence, is capable of yielding more accurate predictions and providing more useful information. This technique is discussed in detail. A more flexible probability density model for activity times is introduced, and a resource allocation technique based on the probability that an activity will be on the critical path is developed. Finally, an application of PERT network theory to military operational planning is described.
- Numerical Mathematics
- Operations Research