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A STATISTICAL MODEL FOR DETERMINING NAVAL ACADEMY INPUTS TO ASSURE SPECIFIED NAVAL OFFICER OUTPUTS.
NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA
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A statistical model for determining Naval Academy inputs and resultant Naval Officer outputs has been developed. Data pertaining to Naval Academy classes for the past thirty years was collected and studied. The basic model considered each graduate sampled as a BERNOULLI Trial. By regression analysis, best estimators for the parameters proportions of success for each population of graduates in different grades, were determined. Probabilities were then calculated for a randomly selected graduate, commissioned Ensign, to serve in successive grades, with a specified confidence. An INPUTOUTPUT formula was derived. This paper will provide current personnel planners with accurate officer planning requirements. The author wishes to express his appreciation for the thoroughly outstanding assistance and encouragement given him by Professor W. M. Woods of the U. S. Naval Postgraduate School. Author
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE