DEVELOPMENT OF TECHNIQUES FOR PREDICTION OF SYSTEM EFFECTIVENESS.
COOK ELECTRIC CO MORTON GROVE ILL
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The broad problem of the prediction of system effectiveness is investigated with the objective of determining the kind of mathematics, mathematical models of mathematical procedures capable of supporting a significant amount of the required applications. Special attention is given to those problem areas in which the computation of effectiveness indices can not exclude consideration of reliability and maintainability. For such problems it is concluded that feasible solutions, capable of the timely and economical generation of needed results, exist only in terms of hybrid Monte-Carlo and analytical simulation programs for digital computers requiring, in some cases, minor analog support which must be generated by the computer itself by virtue of a compiler type automatic programming language. The existing languages are investigated and found unsuitable because of lack of suitable logic, protracted programming time or lack or usability by other than specially trained professional programmers. Some of the difficulties encountered are demonstrated by the construction of a working program for the prediction of system effectiveness for a simple system for which reliability and maintainability are considered. Suggestions for the structure of a suitable language are set forth. Author