Accession Number:

AD0431634

Title:

TERM EXPECTATION AND UNCERTAINTY IN HUMAN DECISION BEHAVIOR,

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

OHIO STATE UNIV RESEARCH FOUNDATION COLUMBUS LAB OF AVIATION PSYCHOLOGY

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1963-11-01

Pagination or Media Count:

18.0

Abstract:

This study was conducted to investigate the manner and degree to which a decision makers sequence of decisions is influenced by objectives of varying remoteness term expectation and by informational uncertainty. The effects of these two variables on sequential decision performance were studied in a 4 x 4 factorial experiment. Term expectation was defined as the number of problems over which the decision maker accumulated his score. Uncertainty was manipulate by controlling the number of events from which the subject was to predict a terminal event. Decisions predictions were made either at prescribed uncertainty levels or on a freely chosen basis depending on the prevailing experimental conditions, and a range of choices varying in degree of risk and payoff was available at each uncertainty level. The same five subjects served in all conditions of the experiment. Choices were evaluated in terms of risk, expected value, and average departure from linear progression to mean winning score DFL. No significant differences were obtained for term expectation, per se. Maximum expected values were achieved at intermediate levels of uncertainty. Author

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE