A COMBINATORIAL MODEL FOR DETERMINING PENETRATION PROBABILITY OF WARHEADS ACCOMPANIED BY DECOYS
DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF FOR RESEARCH DEVELOPMENT AND ACQUISITION (ARMY) WASHINGTON DC
Pagination or Media Count:
The following assumptions are made 1 the defense detects the complete swarm of incoming objects before the engagement begins 2 he commits his c missiles as uniformly as possible 3 he cannot distinguish between decoys and warheads prior to final commitment time and 4 he cannot kill more than one incoming object with a single missile. In the derivation of the mathematical model, a restriction of the number of incoming objects is first made, and the probability of at least one warhead penetrating is determined. Next this restriction is removed, and the probability of at least one warhead penetrating is established again. Finally this result is made more general to determine the probability that at least u warheads penetrate.
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