RESEARCH ON DECISION PROCESSES.
Final rept., 1 Dec 61-29 Mar 63,
MICHIGAN UNIV ANN ARBOR INST OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY
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The statement of research work read in part as follows a Probability feedback in sequential decision making will be studied by determining courses of action whose probabilities of success will be well-defined functions of the subjects previous choices. Independent variables used in the study will include 1 nature of the dependency of probability of reward on previous choices, 2 number and degress of dependence or independence of the courses of action available and 3 amount and kind of information available to the subject. b Probability tracking will be studied by determining courses of action whose probabilities of success vary according to some well-defined function of the number of elapsed trials. Independent variables shall include the form and the continuity or discontinuity of the forcing function which generates the change in probabilities. c The psychophysics of probability will be studied by determining the psychophysical properties, in particular the size of just noticeable difference, of sequential and simultaneous displays of probabilities. d Concurrent with a, b, and c, theoretical work on general decision making will be done including updating of existing literature surveys and making an attempt to relate concepts useful in explaining decisions to concepts useful in other areas of experimental psychology. Author