A STUDY IN PROBABILISTIC INFORMATION PROCESSING (PIP)
SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT CORP SANTA MONICA CA
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Men required to choose among alternative hypotheses given fallible data fail to extract as much certainty as the data justify. PIP Theory indicates that performance can be improved by using Bayesian probability judgements. This experiment was designed to test this theory. Subjects, receiving simulated military data, determinined which one of three strategies Hypotheses an enemy was using. In the NON-PIP condition subjects estimated PHD directly. In the PIP condition subjects estimated PDH, and PHD was calculated using Bayes Formula. Results show 1 the highest probability was always assigned to the correct hypothesis. 2 PIP was superior to NON-PIP in a achieving higher posterior probabilities, and b reaching asymptotes faster. 3 Increasing difficulty resulted in poorer performance in NON-PIP.
- Operations Research
- Statistics and Probability