Accession Number:

AD0392886

Title:

MEASUREMENT OF PACIFICATION PROGRESS IN VIETNAM

Descriptive Note:

Technical paper

Corporate Author:

RESEARCH ANALYSIS CORP MCLEAN VA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1968-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

79.0

Abstract:

The purpose of the study was to develop and test a mathematical model, employing the standard linear multiple regression method, to determine whether quantitative measurements of progress in Vietnam, based on data generated in the field, could be made. A satisfactory model would help also to identify and measure factors affecting progress, provide a useful predictive device, and offer a method for checking the field reporting systems. Progress was measured by the proportion of the population under the control of both sides, changes, and the rate of change. Work covered a 22-month test period, May 1964-Feb 1966, for all 43 provinces the province data were combined to produce corps tactical zone and countrywide assessments. Statistical tests of the method were satisfactory. A comparison between the reported and computed data was made at province level percentage differences were less than 5 percent in the majority of cases at corps level, less than 2 percent and countrywide, less than 1 percent. The multiple regression calculations were completely computerized, offering rapid assessments. The quality of the results indicated that the technique could help to determine progress, estimate force requirements, and to predict future trends. Author

Subject Categories:

  • Government and Political Science
  • Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
  • Unconventional Warfare

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE