Accession Number:

AD0287465

Title:

THE LINEAR PREDICTABILITY OF PRECIPITATION

Descriptive Note:

Research rept.

Corporate Author:

MASSACHUSETTS INST OF TECH CAMBRIDGE

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1962-09-01

Pagination or Media Count:

57.0

Abstract:

The problem of the short-term predictability of precipitation remained rather unamenable to investigation by dynamic methods. A diagnostic study of this problem was made using a linear prediction scheme based upon statistics of precipitation intensity. The data necessary for the determination of such statistics were obtained by the aid of a horizontally scanning radar with the signal returned by the precipitation being a measure of its intensity. It is found that 1 the linear predictability of precipitation is relatively insensitive to reasonable variations in the spatial density of the data, however, the spatial extent of the data may be a critical parameter 2 the nonlinear behavior of precipitation elements whose sizes range from one mile up to 100 miles in order of magnitude is important for the short term predictability 3 the space resolution with which a forecast is made will influence to some extent the level of predictability and 4 the quality of linear prediction decreases with time as expected but not in a systematic manner because of the presence of different sizes of precipitating elements in the storms from which the data were obtained.

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE