Accession Number:

AD0285796

Title:

ERRORS IN SIX AND TWELVE HOUR PREDICTIONS OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS

Descriptive Note:

Research note

Corporate Author:

AIR FORCE CAMBRIDGE RESEARCH LABS HANSCOM AFB MA

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1962-07-01

Pagination or Media Count:

99.0

Abstract:

REVEALS THAT SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS ARE LINEARLY RELATED TO THE WIND AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST INTERVAL. THIS RELATIONSHIP ENABLES THE DEVELOPMENT OF A REGRESSION EQUATION BETWEEN FORECAST ERROR AND PERSISTENCE ERROR MAKING IT POSSIBLE TO EXTEND THE RESULTS DERIVED FROM THIS SAMPLE. THE VARIATION OF FORECAST AND PERSISTENCE ERRORS WITH GEOGRAPHY, LEVEL AND SEASON IS DISCUSSED. THE MAXIMUM ADVANTAGE OF SUBJECTIVE FORECASTS OVER PERSISTENCE IS 10 FOR 6-HR PERIODS AND 20 FOR 12-HR PERIODS

Subject Categories:

  • Meteorology

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE