RESEARCH DIRECTED TOWARD THE USE OF SYNOPTIC SIMULATION TO DEVELOP FORECAST MODELS COMPATIBLE FOR USE IN SYSTEM 433L
EASTERN AIR LINES INC ATLANTA GA
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Methods for forecasting visibility at 1200Z from observations at 0600Z and earlier for Idlewild and Washington National Airports are given. The methods include a subjective classification of the 0600Z sea-level chart with respect to the station. The synoptic pressure patterns include Post-trough, Pre-trough, Pre-warm Front, Smoke Patterns, In High, In Low, Hurricanes and Changing Patterns. Solutions for Post-trough and Smoke Patterns involve an automatic forecast. Solutions for the Pre-trough pattern are divided into cases with maritime history and those with continental history. The same basic parameters are used at both stations, an additional predictor being required at Idlewild. The Pre-warm Front system applies only to Idlewild. Two solutions are given, one using a seasonal stratification, the other a general solution applicable in any season. All predictors are objective and computations simple. The combined solution forecast visibility correctly in 2407 out of 2633 cases.