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THEORY OF SORTIE RATES
CENTER FOR NAVAL ANALYSES WASHINGTON D C OPERATIONS EVALUATION GROUP
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A mathematical analysis was made of sortie rates as an example of a general repetitive process, involving the use of equipments which are subject to random requirements for repair or replacement. This study presents a unified treatment of the transient and steady-state sortie rates under a variety of operational conditions, and provides a mathematical justification for the expected value calculations made in the earlier studies. Probability distributions for the numbers of sorties were derived for the case in which all available aircraft are employed. An investigation is also made under the alternative assumption that the number of aircraft to be used is less than the number that may be available, as in the case of Combat Air Patrol, and approximate formulae are derived for the probability that the required number of aircraft will be available. The final section summarizes the results obtained in a form suitable for the numerical computation of sortie rates or aircraft requirements. Author
APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE