Accession Number:

AD0262400

Title:

A BAYES TEST OF P LESS THAN OR EQUAL TO 1/2 VERSUS P >1/2

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

COLUMBIA UNIV NEW YORK

Personal Author(s):

Report Date:

1961-09-05

Pagination or Media Count:

45.0

Abstract:

Consider the following sequential decision problem--An urn contains white and black balls, the proportion p of black balls being unknown, 0 p 1. A single ball is to be drawn at random from the urn tomorrow and we must guess its color it our guess is correct we are to receive a reward of A, and if incorrect we are to receive nothing. In order to obtain some information about p we are allowed to draw as many balls as we like from the urn today, one at a time and with replacement, observing the color of each ball drawn, but for each such ball drawn we must pay 1. Problem how many balls should we observe today and what color should we then predict for the ball to be drawn tomorrow. Author

Subject Categories:

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE