INVESTIGATION OF THE OPTIMUM ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES FOR WEATHER ANALYSIS AND FORECASTING
Progress rept. no. 1
PENNSYLVANIA STATE UNIV UNIVERSITY PARK MINERAL INDUSTRIES EXPERIMENT STATION
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A pilot study was made of forecasting the usual weather parameters in the absence of certain combinations of synoptic data. Two forecasters analyzed 6 schemes or combinations of sea-level or 500-mb data in which the information was systematically reduced. The results indicated an effective deterioration of forecast scores only for severely reduced information. Variation of the forecast verification schemes shifted the error level of forecasts without affecting the score trends. An optimum scheme which existed for data reduction allowed for spotting, analyzing, and forecasting in considerably less time. Attempts are being made to forecast from prognostic charts which represent correct analyses of the subsequent maps.