Accession Number : ADA621886


Title :   Validation Test Report for the Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System as a Fractures/Leads and Polynyas Product


Descriptive Note : Memorandum rept.


Corporate Author : NAVAL RESEARCH LAB STENNIS DETACHMENT STENNIS SPACE CENTER MS OCEANOGRAPHY DIV


Personal Author(s) : Crout, Julia W ; Posey, Pamela G


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a621886.pdf


Report Date : 26 May 2015


Pagination or Media Count : 44


Abstract : This document serves as the Validation Test Report (VTR) for the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) Arctic Cap Nowcast/Forecast System (ACNFS) ability to capture and predict sea ice areas of opening Fractures/Leads, And Polynyas (FLAP). ACNFS calculates motion rates (opening/ closing, ridging, divergence, and shear) in addition to numerous other products such as ice concentration, ice thickness, and ice drift. A combination of these parameters is used to produce a product of opening rates that represent areas of FLAPs. This VTR documents a series of comparison studies performed using ACNFS strain rate fields and validates the opening rate products against an 11 month period of National Ice Center (NIC) FLAP messages from January through November 2012. Forecasted ACNFS fields are evaluated for the period of February through June 2014 on daily 24 hours through 7-day forecasts. Additional comparisons are shown for ICEX-2014. This validation assessment was performed using ACNFS with some limited comparisons with the Global Ocean Forecast System (GOFS 3.1). GOFS 3.1 uses the same ocean model coupling and sea ice model as ACNFS and is expected to perform similarly. Overall, ACNFS along with GOFS 3.1 provided a reasonable prediction of the openings not available elsewhere in both the nowcast and forecast mode and performed better than persistence.


Descriptors :   *ICE OPENINGS , *VALIDATION , ARCTIC OCEAN , DRIFT , FORECASTING , ICE BREAKUP , ICE FORECASTING , ICE MECHANICS , OCEAN MODELS , OPENING(PROCESS) , RADAR IMAGES , RATES , SEA ICE , SHEAR PROPERTIES , STRAIN RATE , THICKNESS


Subject Categories : Snow, Ice and Permafrost


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE