Accession Number : ADA619788


Title :   Quantitative Risks


Descriptive Note : Technical rept.


Corporate Author : WAYNE STATE UNIV DETROIT MI


Personal Author(s) : Witus, Gary


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a619788.pdf


Report Date : 24 Feb 2015


Pagination or Media Count : 39


Abstract : The goals of this project are to develop, verify, and validate methods, procedures, and tools that provide objective, quantified indicators of acquisition program cost, schedule, and performance risk. It builds on prior empirical analyses of system development indicators. The goal MPTs should provide an integrated approach toward risk exposure analysis using risk leading indicators and risk estimating relationships. The primary products are (1) a set risk leading indicators calculated from standard program documents, and (2) methods to calibrate and baseline the risk leading indicators and program outcomes. Secondary products are (3) Request for Proposal (RFP) language to improve risk exposure during Engineering and Manufacturing Development (EMD), and (4) recommendations for collecting and sharing data to calibrate/baseline risk estimating relationships across programs. Significant developments of this phase are: specifying risk leading indicators related to root causes of adverse acquisition outcome and detectable in program documentation, producing a structure and method to provide integrated risk exposure analysis for acquisition and contract data, and specifying a process to calibrate the expected impacts. Development plans are to demonstrating, testing and evaluating the risk leading indicators and risk exposure calibration methods to assess practicality, feasibility, relevance and significance via application to acquisition programs.


Descriptors :   *ACQUISITION , *RISK ANALYSIS , *VALIDATION , *VERIFICATION , ADVERSE CONDITIONS , CALIBRATION , CONTRACTS , COSTS , ENGINEERING , FEASIBILITY STUDIES , IMPACT , INDICATORS , INTEGRATED SYSTEMS , MANUFACTURING , METHODOLOGY , PLANNING , RISK , RISK MANAGEMENT , SCHEDULING , SHARING , TOOLS


Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Operations Research
      Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys
      Test Facilities, Equipment and Methods


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE