Accession Number : ADA603951


Title :   Blue Horizons IV: Deterrence in the Age of Surprise


Descriptive Note : Occasional paper no. 70


Corporate Author : AIR WAR COLL MAXWELL AFB AL CENTER FOR STRATEGY AND TECHNOLOGY


Personal Author(s) : Geis, II, John P ; Hammond, Grant T ; Foster, Harry A ; Hailes, Theodore C


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a603951.pdf


Report Date : Jan 2014


Pagination or Media Count : 88


Abstract : This study examines the implications of exponential technological change on the panoply of threats the US Air Force may have to face in the future and how the Air Force should posture itself to best deter those threats. Specifically, this study: examines the changes in the array of threats for which be needed in the future, due to the proliferation of disruptive technologies; explores the relevance of deterrence theory to both existing and new threats, some of which may surpass nuclear weapons in the risk they pose to both the United States and humankind; and recommends new ways of applying deterrence theory in order to reduce the risk that new disruptive technologies will be used against the United States or its interests. Building on previous Blue Horizons studies, this work assumes that science and technology growth will continue and will drive proliferation of advanced and potentially dangerous technologies. It posits that the result of rapid advances in nanotechnology, biotechnology, directed energy, space, computers and communications technologies may prove to be particularly dangerous. These developments span the private sector and many nations. Globalization in finance, communications, education, industry, trade governance, and myriad other areas is facilitating the rapid spread of new technologies among nations, groups, and individuals. Actors in unstable states and terrorists may use these technologies in malevolent ways to directly threaten US national security and that of friends and allies. This threat will take the Air Force back to its roots, which began in intelligence surveillance, and reconnaissance. Of principal concern by the year 2035 are threats in six separate areas nuclear weapons, attacks in cyberspace, directed energy weapons, space systems, nanotechnology, and biotechnology. Each of these poses the risk of catastrophic attack to the United States, its citizens, and its infrastructure.


Descriptors :   *DETERRENCE , *OPERATIONAL READINESS , AIR FORCE , BIOLOGICAL WARFARE , COMMERCE , COMMUNICATION AND RADIO SYSTEMS , COMPUTERS , CYBERTERRORISM , DIRECTED ENERGY WEAPONS , ENERGY , INFRASTRUCTURE , INTELLIGENCE , NANOTECHNOLOGY , NATIONAL SECURITY , NATIONS , NUCLEAR WEAPONS , POSTURE(GENERAL) , RISK , SPACE SYSTEMS , STRATEGY , SURVEILLANCE , TERRORISTS , THEORY , THREATS , UNITED STATES


Subject Categories : Government and Political Science


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE