Accession Number : ADA600409


Title :   Effects of Near-Term Sea-Level Rise on Coastal Infrastructure


Descriptive Note : Final rept. Mar 2009-Jun 2012


Corporate Author : FLORIDA STATE UNIV TALLAHASSEE


Personal Author(s) : Donoghue, Joseph F ; Elsner, James B ; Hu, Bill X ; Kish, Stephen A ; Niedoroda, Alan W ; Wang, Yang ; Ye, Ming


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a600409.pdf


Report Date : Mar 2013


Pagination or Media Count : 186


Abstract : The objective of this investigation was to develop new methods for comprehensive modeling of the effects and potential risk of projected sea-level rise, and increased storminess, on coastal environments and infrastructure over the next century. The project has focused on the Eglin Air Force Base (EAFB) region on the northwest Florida coast. The methods that have been developed in this work are applicable to military installations in similar coastal settings. The project had six major components: (1) analyzing historic coastal change and remote sensing data; (2) modeling future storms; (3) analyzing the paleostorm history in coastal sediments; (4) modeling coastal wetlands; (5) modeling coastal groundwater; (6) modeling morphologic change and analyzing uncertainty. The project has had several significant outcomes. We have developed one of the most comprehensive databases ever assembled on historic changes in shorelines and barrier island morphology. A regional storm history has been developed for use in the modeling effort, both for historic and prehistoric time. We have combined our field and archival data to develop a purpose-built numerical model of coastal morphology, incorporating morphological, sea-level, and storm climatology data to predict changes over the next century. The outcomes of this study can be used to evaluate how to make reliable predictions of the effects of future climate change on coastal infrastructure and natural coastal systems. The expected result will be to enable cost-effective mitigation and adaptation strategies to prepare for a warmer future.


Descriptors :   *COASTAL REGIONS , *INFRASTRUCTURE , *SEA LEVEL , *STORMS , CLIMATE CHANGE , GROUND WATER , ISLANDS , MODELS , MORPHOLOGY , NUMERICAL METHODS AND PROCEDURES , PREDICTIONS , REMOTE DETECTION , SEDIMENTS , UNCERTAINTY , WETLANDS


Subject Categories : Meteorology
      Hydrology, Limnology and Potamology
      Civil Engineering


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE