Accession Number : ADA584076


Title :   Mapping Populations: An Objective Measurement of Revolutionary Dynamics


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA DEFENSE ANALYSIS DEPT


Personal Author(s) : Gaugush, David ; Merkl, Gregory ; Thompson, Nicholas


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a584076.pdf


Report Date : Jun 2013


Pagination or Media Count : 177


Abstract : This work proposes a mathematical paradigm for modeling the rise and fall of ideologically-based coalitions during intrastate conflicts. It proposes that misalignment of preferences within society's constituencies drives instability, which can lead to revolution. To determine society's preference on an issue, the model considers two components: ideology and fervor. It shows that ideology tends to remain static while fervor changes rapidly. With society's preferences mapped according to constituents' ideology and fervor, the model then considers how coalitions exercise control in their quest for dominance. The model builds upon the foundation of expert thought on intrastate conflict. It uses experts' generally qualitative assessments and employs measurable data and linear algebra to give a more formal depiction of the dynamics at play. Mapping populations in this manner may give insight into optimal strategies for eliciting stability or instability in a state. Using a hypothetical country (Doulah) in a developing revolution, the work implements the map to depict a government's attempts to stabilize a devolving intrastate system. It shows how rival coalitions can rapidly rise from irrelevance to preeminence by manipulating fervor. The work concludes by depicting the impact of various third-party strategies for intervening in intrastate conflicts.


Descriptors :   *CONFLICT , *GOVERNMENT(FOREIGN) , *IDEOLOGY , *MAPPING , *MATHEMATICAL MODELS , *POLITICAL REVOLUTION , *POPULATION , ATTITUDES(PSYCHOLOGY) , INSTABILITY , INSURGENCY , INTERVENTION , MOBILIZATION , POLITICAL PARTIES , PUBLIC OPINION , STABILITY , THESES


Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Sociology and Law
      Psychology
      Unconventional Warfare


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE