Accession Number : ADA565572


Title :   The Next Arms Race


Corporate Author : ARMY WAR COLL STRATEGIC STUDIES INST CARLISLE BARRACKS PA


Personal Author(s) : Sokolski, Henry D


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a565572.pdf


Report Date : Jul 2012


Pagination or Media Count : 531


Abstract : The strategic military competitions of the next 2 decades will be unlike any the world has yet seen. Assuming U.S., Chinese, Russian, Israeli, Indian, French, British, and Pakistani strategic forces continue to be modernized and America and Russia continue to reduce their strategic nuclear deployments, the next arms race will be run by a much larger number of contestants with highly destructive strategic capabilities far more closely matched and capable of being quickly enlarged than in any other previous period in history. In this more voluble world, the United States will need to pay more attention to competing and negotiating with China on strategic military matters. Washington and its friends will also have to do more to stabilize relations between Pakistan, India, and China, and to firm up security alliance relations with Korea, Japan, and other key states in the Pacific. While the hope of eliminating nuclear weapons may continue, the United States and other like-minded states will need to do more to reduce the numbers and types of ground-launched nuclear-capable missiles and the production of, and access to, nuclear weapons-usable materials. Finally, far more will need to be done to restrict and condition the further spread of peaceful nuclear energy programs to new states, lest the Middle and Far East be peppered with more Irans and North Koreas. What will happen if we fail to take on these new, additional challenges? At a minimum, nuclear weapons and first-strike missiles will spread, and so increase the prospect of use. In the worst case, there will be wars that may well go nuclear. In this case, the l930s and l960s could end up looking quite benign.


Descriptors :   *NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION , ARMS CONTROL , INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS , NUCLEAR WEAPONS , WESTERN SECURITY(INTERNATIONAL)


Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Nuclear Warfare


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE