Accession Number : ADA556867


Title :   An Inverse Problem Formulation Methodology for Stochastic Models


Corporate Author : NORTH CAROLINA STATE UNIV AT RALEIGH CENTER FOR RESEARCH IN SCIENTIFIC COMPUTATION


Personal Author(s) : Ortiz, A R ; Banks, H T ; Castillo-Chavez, C ; Chowell, G ; Wang, X


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a556867.pdf


Report Date : 02 May 2010


Pagination or Media Count : 28


Abstract : A method for estimating parameters in dynamic stochastic (Markov Chain) models based on Kurtz's limit theory coupled with inverse problem methods developed for deterministic dynamical systems is proposed and illustrated in the context of disease dynamics. This methodology relies on finding an approximate large-population behavior of an appropriate scaled stochastic system. This approach leads to a deterministic approximation obtained as solutions of rate equations (ordinary differential equations) in terms of the large sample size average over sample paths or trajectories (limits of pure jump Markov processes). Using the resulting deterministic model we select parameter subset combinations that can be estimated using an ordinary-least- squares (OLS) or generalized-least-squares (GLS) inverse problem formulation with a given data set. The selection is based on two criteria of the sensitivity matrix: the degree of sensitivity measure in the form of its condition number and the degree of uncertainty measured in the form of its parameter selection score. We illustrate the ideas with a stochastic model for the transmission of vancomycin-resistant enterococcus (VRE) in hospitals and VRE surveillance data from an oncology unit.


Descriptors :   *INVERSE PROBLEMS , DETERMINANTS(MATHEMATICS) , DIFFERENTIAL EQUATIONS , FORMULATIONS , MARKOV PROCESSES , MATHEMATICAL MODELS , METHODOLOGY , PROBABILITY , STOCHASTIC PROCESSES , STREPTOCOCCUS


Subject Categories : Theoretical Mathematics


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE