Accession Number : ADA547802


Title :   Prediction Markets as a Way to Manage Acquisition Programs


Descriptive Note : Doctoral thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Dishmon, Joshua M


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a547802.pdf


Report Date : Jun 2011


Pagination or Media Count : 49


Abstract : Prediction markets generally are small-scale electronic markets that tie payoffs to measurable future events. They are similar to stock markets, where the stocks are outcomes or events rather than shares in a company. The growing popularity of prediction markets reflects the notion that markets are an excellent means of efficient information aggregation among a disparate group of people. Trading prices in the prediction markets provide decision makers with a timely, accurate, and continuously updated picture on the likelihood of future events. This enables decision makers to better evaluate risk. Based on historical successes in prediction market utilization, it is both logical and important to assess the usefulness of prediction markets in acquisition programs. This thesis evaluates the usefulness of prediction markets in the Department of Defense (DoD) acquisition field.


Descriptors :   *ACQUISITION , *MANAGEMENT PLANNING AND CONTROL , *PREDICTIONS , DECISION MAKING , DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE , EFFICIENCY , ELECTRONICS , FORECASTING , MARKETING , RISK , THESES , UTILIZATION


Subject Categories : Administration and Management


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE