Accession Number : ADA546262


Title :   A Conceptual Model of Counterinsurgency: Understanding Elements, Factors, and Probability of Success


Descriptive Note : Final rept.


Corporate Author : NAVAL WAR COLL NEWPORT RI JOINT MILITARY OPERATIONS DEPT


Personal Author(s) : Kappelmann, Mark G


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a546262.pdf


Report Date : 03 May 2011


Pagination or Media Count : 33


Abstract : A Conceptual Model of Counterinsurgency: Understanding Elements, Factors, and Probability of Success The U.S. military has been fighting large-scale insurgencies for a decade; yet a thorough understanding of this complex subset of warfare eludes many of those who are responsible for implementing counterinsurgency strategy at the local or regional level. However, the complex nature of insurgency warfare can be graphically modeled, and from this model one can deduce a relative probability of success. The U.S. Military should adopt this model into counterinsurgency doctrine in order to help leaders understand the structure of the problem, determine their objectives, and increase their probability of success. Understanding this model will be facilitated by exploring the primacy of the population followed by a descriptive study of the proposed counterinsurgency model. The advantages a native counterinsurgent force has over an expeditionary force will also be addressed. In the conclusion, the model will be applied to Operation Enduring Freedom and the decade of counterinsurgency operations in Afghanistan.


Descriptors :   *COUNTERINSURGENCY , STRATEGY , INSURGENCY , PROBABILITY , MILITARY OPERATIONS , MILITARY DOCTRINE


Subject Categories : Unconventional Warfare


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE