Accession Number : ADA510224


Title :   Rare Events


Descriptive Note : Technical rept.


Corporate Author : MITRE CORP MCLEAN VA JASON PROGRAM OFFICE


Personal Author(s) : McMorrow, D


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a510224.pdf


Report Date : Oct 2009


Pagination or Media Count : 97


Abstract : JASON was asked by the Department of Defense (DoD) to conduct an evaluation of the nation's ability to anticipate and assess the risk of rare events. 'Rare events' specifically refers to catastrophic terrorist events, including the use of a weapon of mass destruction or other high-profile attacks, where there is sparse (or no) historical record from which to develop predictive models based on past statistics. This study was requested by the Strategic Multi-Layer Assessment (SMA) program, which is part of the Joint Staff/J-3, STRATCOM/GISC, and the Rapid Technology Program Office within the Department of Defense Research and Engineering.


Descriptors :   *STATISTICS , *PREDICTIONS , *GAME THEORY , RISK , STRATEGIC ANALYSIS , MODELS , THREATS , MILITARY RESEARCH , HISTORY , MASS DESTRUCTION WEAPONS , OPERATIONS RESEARCH , CATASTROPHIC CONDITIONS , TERRORISM , LESSONS LEARNED , INTELLIGENCE , TERRORISTS , DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE


Subject Categories : Operations Research


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE