Accession Number : ADA505823


Title :   Mitigating Surprise Through Enhanced Operational Design: Civilian Conceptual Planning Models


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : MARINE CORPS UNIV QUANTICO VA SCHOOL OF ADVANCED WARFIGHTING (SAW)


Personal Author(s) : Strickland, Adam T


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a505823.pdf


Report Date : Jan 2007


Pagination or Media Count : 45


Abstract : The conceptual planning (visualization) portion of the United States Marine Corps' operational design must be revised to incorporate a more detailed Commander's Battlespace Area Evaluation or estimate that attempts to identify the root cause of conflict in order to ensure that planners have a more systemic understanding of the operating environment; and thus, are better prepared to recommend several well-informed courses of action that mitigate the risks of surprise and unintended consequences. If commanders lack the requisite knowledge of complex environments to correctly identify social or political connectedness, or know which effects will have unintended consequences, will this mean the rest of the process is flawed? In a command driven process such as the MCPP, one would likely conclude that the answer is yes. There are three civilian problem-setting tools that satisfy military planning needs from the battalion to the Marine Expeditionary Force (MEF) level in complex environments. USAID?s Office of Conflict Management and Mitigation (CMM), the World Bank (WB), and CIA Political Instability Task Force (PITF) have developed three distinct problem-setting tools that have demonstrated considerable efficacy in determining the root causes of conflict, as well as the ability to accurately predict the outbreak of civil conflict. All three tools can provide military planners with a depth of knowledge of the environment that is unattainable through standard means of visualization, to include: CBAE, staff estimate, or standard IPB. All three models can be completed using open-source materials.


Descriptors :   *CIVIL AFFAIRS , *MILITARY PLANNING , MILITARY REQUIREMENTS , POLITICAL SCIENCE , ENVIRONMENTS , MANAGEMENT , MODELS , BATTALION LEVEL ORGANIZATIONS , TASK FORCES , TOOLS , THESES , CONFLICT , INSTABILITY , MILITARY OPERATIONS , MARINE CORPS


Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE