Accession Number : ADA494447


Title :   Underlying Reasons for Success and Failure of Terrorist Attacks: Selected Case Studies


Descriptive Note : Final rept.


Corporate Author : HOMELAND SECURITY INST ARLINGTON VA


Personal Author(s) : McCleskey, Edward ; McCord, Diana ; Leetz, Jennifer ; Markey, John


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a494447.pdf


Report Date : 04 Jun 2007


Pagination or Media Count : 177


Abstract : Terrorist organizations are not static entities. They learn, change their structure, adapt to countermeasures, and continuously look for means to advance their campaign. Sometimes the terrorists' efforts result in successful operations; sometimes they lead to failure. The purpose of this study is to identify particular factors which influence the success or failure of terrorist plots. This is the second of a two-phased effort: Phase I focused on assessing the underlying reasons for the success and failure of terrorist attacks against targets within the United States and against U.S. interests abroad. Phase II, this study, focuses on attacks since the mid-1990s against targets in the United States and abroad, whether or not they directly targeted the United States. The authors look at two target categories that they believe are particularly vulnerable: passenger rail and commercial aviation. Using a case study analysis, they identified eight particular terrorist attacks to analyze. The Passenger Rail attacks analyzed are as follows: the Aum Shinrikyo attack on Japanese subway trains, March 20, 1995; the suicide bombing plot involving the New York City subway system, July 1997; the attacks on the London transit system, July 7, 2005; and the plan to attack the London transit system, July 21, 2005. The Commercial Aviation attacks analyzed are as follows: the hijacking of Air France Flight 8969, December 24-26, 1994; the Bojinka plot in the Philippines, December 1994-January 1995; the attacks of September 11, 2001; and the plot to destroy U.S. airliners with liquid explosives, August 2006. The authors analyzed these cases based on an expansion of the set of factors used in Phase I. The results were then examined as a group to discern trends and commonalities.


Descriptors :   *TERRORISTS , *RAIL TRANSPORTATION , *COMMERCIAL AVIATION , *VULNERABILITY , *MOTIVATION , *PLANNING , *ATTACK , JAPAN , PROFILES , CASE STUDIES , SECURITY PERSONNEL , INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS , COOPERATION , AWARENESS , GB AGENT , PHILIPPINES , BOMBING , AIRCRAFT HIJACKING , LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICERS , LIQUID EXPLOSIVES , NEW YORK(NEW YORK) , OBSERVATION , VIGILANCE , INTERDICTION , INFORMATION EXCHANGE , DETECTION , POLICIES , UNITED KINGDOM , INTELLIGENCE


Subject Categories : Commercial and General Aviation
      Surface Transportation and Equipment
      Unconventional Warfare


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE