Accession Number:

ADA469325

Title:

An Abrupt Climate Change Scenario and its Implications for United States National Security

Descriptive Note:

Corporate Author:

CALIFORNIA INST OF TECH PASADENA JET PROPULSION LAB

Personal Author(s):

• Schwartz, Peter
• Randall, Doug

Report Date:

2003-10-01

Pagination or Media Count:

23.0

Abstract:

The purpose of this report is to imagine the unthinkable to push the boundaries of current research on climate change so we may better understand the potential implications on United States national security. We have interviewed leading climate change scientists, conducted additional research, and reviewed several iterations of the scenario with these experts. The scientists support this project, but caution that the scenario depicted is extreme in two fundamental ways. First, they suggest the occurrences we outline would most likely happen in a few regions, rather than on globally. Second, they say the magnitude of the event may be considerably smaller. We have created a climate change scenario that although not the most likely, is plausible, and would challenge United States national security in ways that should be considered immediately.

Descriptors:

• *CLIMATE
• *NATIONAL SECURITY
• *WEATHER
• ADVERSE CONDITIONS
• ATMOSPHERIC MOTION
• GLOBAL
• ITERATIONS
• SCENARIOS
• SCIENTISTS
• SOILS
• UNITED STATES
• WIND

Subject Categories:

• Meteorology
• Military Intelligence

Distribution Statement:

APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE