Accession Number : ADA467112


Title :   Displaying Uncertainty: A Comparison Between Submarine Subject Matter Experts


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Prouty, Jr, James R


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a467112.pdf


Report Date : Mar 2007


Pagination or Media Count : 140


Abstract : This study investigates the operational implications of the differences between submarine Target Motion Analysis (TMA) experts. A submarine's use of passive sonar provides uncertain data required to make certain decisions. Bise experiment presents four individual scenarios to three submarine TMA experts: Commanding/Executive Officers (CO/XO), Department Heads (DH), and Elie Control Technicians (ET). Ten individuals from each expert group volunteered from the Groton, CT, and Bangor, WA, submarine bases. A between subject design experiment compared the ranges, range envelopes, time, and over or under estimations of range to the contact generated by each group of experts. After the experiment subjective and objective data were analyzed in order to determine what, if any, differences exist between the three different experts. The results indicate that there was no significant difference between experts. Recommendations address improvements in experiment implementation which can be integrated into future studies as well as the design of improved decision aids.


Descriptors :   *UNCERTAINTY , *TARGETS , *DECISION AIDS , *SUBMARINES , SCENARIOS , DECISION MAKING , ESTIMATES , SUBMARINE BASES , PASSIVE SONAR , EXECUTIVES , MILITARY COMMANDERS , OFFICER PERSONNEL , THESES , MOTION , CONTROL


Subject Categories : Administration and Management
      Target Direction, Range and Position Finding


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE