Accession Number : ADA439532


Title :   Optimizing the Long-Term Capacity Expansion and Protection of Iraqi Oil Infrastructure


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Brown, Patrick S


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a439532.pdf


Report Date : Sep 2005


Pagination or Media Count : 139


Abstract : This thesis introduces a tri-level defender-attacker-defender optimization model that prescribes how Iraq's oil infrastructure can, over time, be expanded, protected, and operated, even in the face of insurgent attacks. The outer-most defender model is a mixed-integer program that, given a set of anticipated insurgent attacks, specifies a quarterly capital expansion, defense, and operation plan to maximize oil exports over a decade-long planning horizon. The intermediate attacker model, observing the outer defender plans, is a mixed integer program that re-optimizes insurgent attacks to minimize export flow. The inner-most defender model is a linear program that redirects flow in response to insurgent damage. The author uses open-source descriptions of current Iraqi oil infrastructure and reasonable estimates of the costs to expand capacity and/or defend operating assets, and reduce vulnerability to attacks. He solves this tri-level model by converting it into an equivalent bi-level one, and applying decomposition. For a range of scenarios, he determines the best allocation of effort between improving oil export infrastructure, and defending it.


Descriptors :   *IRAQ , *CIVIL DEFENSE , *PROTECTION , *INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION , *EXPANSION , *INSURGENCY , *PETROLEUM INDUSTRY , MATHEMATICAL MODELS , DAMAGE , ATTACK , COST ESTIMATES , RISK ANALYSIS , OPERATIONS OTHER THAN WAR , INFRASTRUCTURE , CRUDE OIL , DEFENSE PLANNING , PIPELINES , THESES , VULNERABILITY , INTERDICTION , INDUSTRIAL MODERNIZATION , EXPORTS , SCENARIOS


Subject Categories : Geology, Geochemistry and Mineralogy
      Mining Engineering
      Mfg & Industrial Eng & Control of Product Sys
      Civil Defense
      Unconventional Warfare


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE