Accession Number : ADA432719


Title :   Forecasting Medical Materiel Requirements for Contingency Operations


Corporate Author : ACADEMY OF HEALTH SCIENCES (ARMY) FORT SAM HOUSTON TX HEALTH CARE ADMINISTRATION


Personal Author(s) : Moroney, Daniel J


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a432719.pdf


Report Date : 09 Apr 2004


Pagination or Media Count : 110


Abstract : This qualitative study addresses the issue of poor forecasting accuracy for medical materiel requirements in preparation of contingency operations. Using examples from recent operations, to include Operation Enduring Freedom and Operation Iraqi Freedom, this paper identifies how planners forecast requirements, highlights roadblocks to successful forecasting, and describes tools, models, and procedures for forecasting supplies, both internal and external to the Department of Defense. The study concludes that effective forecasting of supplies is accomplished through a collaborative team approach between clinicians, planners, and logisticians. Additionally, planners and logisticians must look beyond authorizations in sets, kits, and outfits when planning for patient treatment within a theater of operations. Among the various tools discussed, those that base medical materiel requirements on a time-phased patient driven scenario show the most promise including the Naval Health Research Center's Estimating Supplies Program and Resupply Validation Program and the Army Medical Research and Materiel Command's Joint Medical Materiel Modeling.


Descriptors :   *MILITARY OPERATIONS , *LOGISTICS SUPPORT , *MEDICAL SERVICES , SCENARIOS , REQUIREMENTS , THEATER LEVEL OPERATIONS , EMERGENCIES , ARMY RESEARCH , PREPARATION , VALIDATION , TEAMS(PERSONNEL) , FORECASTING , ACCURACY , PATIENTS , SUPPLIES , MEDICAL RESEARCH , MEDICAL EQUIPMENT


Subject Categories : Medicine and Medical Research
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE