Accession Number : ADA422383


Title :   Predicting Catastrophic BGP Routing Instabilities


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Nguyen, Lien K


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a422383.pdf


Report Date : Mar 2004


Pagination or Media Count : 171


Abstract : Inter-domain routing connects individual pieces of Internet topology, creating an integral, global data delivery infrastructure. Currently, this critical function is performed by the Border Gateway Protocol (BGP) version 4 RF01771. Like all routing protocols, BGP is vulnerable to instabilities that reduce its effectiveness. Among the causes of these instabilities are those which are maliciously induced. Although there are other causes, e.g., natural events and network anomalies, this thesis will focus exclusively on maliciously induced instabilities. Most current models that attempt to predict a BGP routing instability confine their focus to either macro- or micro-level metrics, but not to both. The inherent limitations of each of these forms of metric gives rise to an excessive rate of spurious alerts, both false positives and false negatives. It is the original intent of this thesis to develop an improved BGP instability prediction model by statistically combining BGP instability metrics with user level performance metrics. The motivation for such a model is twofold. 1) To provide sufficient prior warning of impending failure to facilitate proactive protection measures. 2) To improve warning reliability beyond existing models, by demonstrably reducing both false positives and false negatives. However, our analysis of actual network trace data shows that a widely used BGP instability metric, the total number of update messages received in a time period, is not a good indicator of future user level performance.


Descriptors :   *COMPUTER NETWORKS , *INTERNET , *INFRASTRUCTURE , *COMMUNICATIONS PROTOCOLS , FUNCTIONS , ANOMALIES , DELIVERY , PREDICTIONS , PERFORMANCE(HUMAN) , VULNERABILITY , RATES , THESES , RELIABILITY , TOPOLOGY , USER NEEDS , ROUTING , MOTIVATION , INSTABILITY , SPURIOUS EFFECTS , WARNING SYSTEMS , PHOTOGRAPHIC NEGATIVES , ANTIVIRUS SOFTWARE


Subject Categories : Computer Programming and Software
      Computer Systems


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE