Accession Number : ADA381193


Title :   Deterrence Effects and Peru's Force-Down/Shoot-Down Policy: Lessons Learned for Counter-Cocaine Interdiction Operations


Descriptive Note : Final rept. 1989-1999


Corporate Author : INSTITUTE FOR DEFENSE ANALYSES ALEXANDRIA VA


Personal Author(s) : Anthony, Robert W ; Crane, Barry D ; Hanson, Stephen F


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a381193.pdf


Report Date : Apr 2000


Pagination or Media Count : 283


Abstract : This paper analyzes the counter-cocaine air interdiction campaign against trafficker flights from Peru to Colombia from 1989 through 1997. We show that once the rate of interdiction of trafficker flights exceeds a threshold, which depends upon the severity of consequences of being interdicted, other pilots are strongly deterred. A modest Peruvian Air Force with U.S. intelligence, detection, and monitoring support interdicting only 3 percent of potential flights under a lethal threat thwarted 80 to 90 percent of potential flights. Immediately following such action in 1995, Peruvian coca prices collapsed. By 1999 farmers abandoned 66 percent of their fields, and residual cultivation concentrated into smaller areas. As Colombians have attempted to replace lost sources, they have further concentrated cultivation in their southwest, creating another lucrative transport interdiction target. We also show that the cocaine market structure amplifies source-zone price increases by a factor of 100 as the product reaches U.S. streets 4 to 5 months later. Consequently, successful source-zone interdiction operations immediately damage source-zone coca markets and later raise street prices and lower street purity of cocaine.


Descriptors :   *AIR STRIKES , *COCAINE , *PERU , *DRUG INTERDICTION , LESSONS LEARNED , COLOMBIA , DETERRENCE , DRUG SMUGGLING


Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
      Sociology and Law
      Toxicology


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE