Accession Number : ADA372960


Title :   A Probabilistic Cost Estimation Model for Unexploded Ordnance Removal


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Poppe, Peter L


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a372960.pdf


Report Date : Sep 1999


Pagination or Media Count : 135


Abstract : The Department of Defense's proposed Range Rule greatly increases the number of unexploded ordnance (UXO) contaminated sites that the services must decontaminate. Existing models for estimating the cost of UXO removal often require a high level of expertise and provide only a point estimate for the costs; they do not provide a probability distribution of the potential costs. This thesis presents a probabilistic cost estimation model created as an add-in for Microsoft Excel. A test database consisting of descriptive and cost information on the historic cleanup of nineteen contaminated areas is created. To demonstrate the model, the thesis filters the database to find eight historic records characteristically similar to a fictitious cleanup scenario, and uses information from these historic records to build probability distributions for six cost elements. The model applies Monte Carlo simulation to these probability distributions to build a probability distribution for the total cleanup cost. The resulting distribution shows that for this cleanup scenario the most likely per acre cost is $8,400, but there is a 75% chance that costs fall between $8,500 and $26,000. Results for a scenario composed of three cleanups predicts a most likely total cost of $ 1.7 million with a 50% probability of costs falling between $1.7 million and $2.2 million.


Descriptors :   *COST ESTIMATES , *ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION , *EXPLOSIVE ORDNANCE DISPOSAL , UNCERTAINTY , PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS , THESES , MONTE CARLO METHOD , INSTALLATION RESTORATION , UNEXPLODED AMMUNITION , SOIL REMEDIATION , RISK ANALYSIS


Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Solid Wastes Pollution and Control


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE