Accession Number : ADA268241


Title :   A Multiperiod Model of U.S. Army Officer Retention Decisions


Descriptive Note : Final rept. Jun-Jan 1993


Corporate Author : BATTELLE MEMORIAL INST COLUMBUS OH


Personal Author(s) : Mackin, Patrick C ; Hogan, Paul F ; Mairs, Lee S


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a268241.pdf


Report Date : May 1993


Pagination or Media Count : 54


Abstract : This report describes a study on the determinants of officer retention behavior. Stay-leave decisions for field-grade active-duty officers in the Infantry and Signal Corps branches were examined using multiperiod ACOL-2 models. This effort expanded upon a pilot study involving the Air Defense Artillery branch. A multiperiod model that predicts officer career decisions as a function of economic, demographic, and Army personnel policies (e.g., military compensation) was successfully estimated with longitudinal data from the U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences Officer Longitudinal Research Data Base. The estimation showed that financial incentives exerted strong behavioral influence on retention, although there is evidence that the strength varies by branch. Civilian labor market conditions, as measured by the unemployment rate, had a significant effect on career decisions. Retention behavior also varied by source of commission, gender, race, and marital status. Finally, unobserved hererogeneity had a significant impact: as officer cohorts age, the distribution of unobserved tastes for the military becomes truncated and retention rates rise.


Descriptors :   *ARMY PERSONNEL , *CAREERS , *LABOR MARKETS , *OFFICER PERSONNEL , DATA BASES , AIR DEFENSE , FUNCTIONS , POLICIES , INFANTRY , MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION , PILOTS , ARTILLERY , COMPENSATION , ARMY , PILOT STUDIES , LABOR , BEHAVIOR , PERSONNEL , ACTIVE DUTY , SIGNALS , UNEMPLOYMENT , SOCIAL SCIENCES , RATES , PANELS , DISTRIBUTION , ARMY RESEARCH , IMPACT , ECONOMICS , MODELS


Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Personnel Management and Labor Relations


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE