Accession Number : ADA267164


Title :   A Critical Analysis of a Range Dependent Probability of Kill For the NATO Seasparrow Missile System


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis,


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Steigers, Curt W


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a267164.pdf


Report Date : Mar 1993


Pagination or Media Count : 71


Abstract : This thesis provides a method to utilize existing digital simulations and missile reliability data to determine the probability of kill (Pk) versus range for the Seasparrow for each system state. A procedure is presented that uses the Pk versus range curve and the firing doctrine to determine the probability of defeating an antiship cruise missile attack for input into a baseline system effectiveness model. A method to optimize the firing doctrine using linear programming techniques is presented. Implemented using the General Algebraic Modeling System (GAMS), the optimized firing doctrine provides a significant enhancement to the probability of defeating an ASCM attack. The thesis enhances the Baseline Systems Effectiveness model for the NATO Seasparrow Missile System (NSSMS) developed by Professor W.M. Woods of the Naval Postgraduate School for the Naval Warfare Assessment Center, Corona, California. ... Seasparrow, Systems effectiveness, Reliability, Probability of Kill (Pk) Simulation, Optimization, GAMS.


Descriptors :   *KILL PROBABILITIES , *CRUISE MISSILES , *RANGE(DISTANCE) , *ANTISHIP MISSILES , INPUT , NATO , COMPUTER PROGRAMMING , LINEAR PROGRAMMING , AUGMENTATION , SYSTEMS MANAGEMENT , DIGITAL SIMULATION , NAVAL WARFARE , RELIABILITY , THESES , ATTACK , PROBABILITY , MODELS , OPTIMIZATION


Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics
      Guided Missiles


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE