Accession Number : ADA264900


Title :   An Evaluation of the Real-Time Tropical Cyclone Forecast Skill of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System in the Western North Pacific


Descriptive Note : Journal article (Final),


Corporate Author : NAVAL RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Fiorino, Michael ; Goerss, James S ; Jensen, Jack J ; Harrison, Edward J , Jr


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a264900.pdf


Report Date : Mar 1993


Pagination or Media Count : 24


Abstract : The meteorological quality and operational utility of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) in forecasting tropical cyclones is evaluated and it is shown that model can provide useful predictions of motion and formation on a real-time basis in the western North Pacific. The evaluation was conducted during the 1990 operational testing of procedure to improve the initial analysis or specification of tropical cyclones (TCs) in NOGAPS by the U.S. Navy Fleet Numerical Oceanography Center (FNOC). The NOGAPS TC analysis procedure generates synthetic TC observations based on operational vortex data (e.g., location and maximum surface wind speed) and then adds the observations to the observational data base with flags to force their assimilation. Results from the first year of testing were favorable, despite intermittent application of the procedure


Descriptors :   *WEATHER FORECASTING , *METEOROLOGY , REPRINTS , TROPICAL CYCLONES , QUALITY CONTROL , MODELS


Subject Categories : Meteorology


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE