Accession Number : ADA262510


Title :   Including Maximum Sustained Wind Speed in a Time Series Model to Forecast Hurricane Movement


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : AIR FORCE INST OF TECH WRIGHT-PATTERSONAFB OH SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING


Personal Author(s) : Mott, Timothy B


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a262510.pdf


Report Date : Mar 1993


Pagination or Media Count : 155


Abstract : Techniques for applying time series fundamentals to forecasting hurricane movement are thoroughly examined in this research. The objectives are: (1) to modify Dr. Thomas Curry's threshold autoregressive time series model to improve its ability to forecast hurricane movement, (2) to forecast the maximum sustained wind speed for a hurricane, and (3) to identify if wind speed should be included as an explanatory variable to aid in forecasting hurricane movement. Eleven different models to predict the latitude, longitude and maximum sustained wind speed are compared and contrasted with Curry's bivariate time series model. The results showed the modifications allow significant forecasting improvement to Curry's model in the 6-, 12-, 24-, 48- and 72-hour forecasts. The model recommended by this research shows a significant improvement in mean and variance of the overall forecast errors.... Hurricane forecasting, Times series.


Descriptors :   *FORECASTING , *HURRICANES , VELOCITY , MODELS , MODIFICATION , TIME , VARIABLES , ERRORS , MEAN , LATITUDE , LONGITUDE


Subject Categories : Meteorology


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE