Accession Number : ADA258738
Title : A Horizontal Refractivity Depiction Product: An Evaluation
Descriptive Note : Final rept.
Corporate Author : NAVAL OCEANOGRAPHIC AND ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH LAB MONTEREY CA
Personal Author(s) : Vogel, G N
Report Date : Jul 1992
Pagination or Media Count : 48
Abstract : The results from an independent validation of the Naval Western Oceanography Center (NWOC) Horizontal Refractivity Depiction (HRO) product, based on a 12 month North Pacific data set, are presented. The average capability of the HRO product (analysis and 36 hr prognosis) in correctly assessing observed refractive structure (either ducting or nonducting) was near 65%; HRO forecasts were reliable 79% of the time. Based on the Hanssen and Kuipers skill score (the difference between the hit and false alarm rates), the capabilities of the HRO product in the assessment and short-range forecasting of ducting were determined to be statistically better than those using an electromagnetic propagation conditions climatology. Any potential operational use of the NWOC HRD product in regions climatically distinct from the eastern North Pacific would likely require some modification of existing forecast thumbrules. The implementation of an automated synoptic-satellite inference rule base (as per an expert system) for the HRD, which would likely result in a more objective and consistent refractivity product, is recommended.
Descriptors : *REFRACTION , *CLIMATOLOGY , *OCEANOGRAPHY , VALIDATION , MODIFICATION , FORECASTING , FALSE ALARMS , WARNING SYSTEMS , METEOROLOGICAL DATA , ARTIFICIAL SATELLITES , EXPERT SYSTEMS , RADIOSONDES
Subject Categories : Meteorology
Physical and Dynamic Oceanography
Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE