Accession Number : ADA257717


Title :   Cruise Missile Proliferation: An Application of Bayesian Analysis to Intelligence Forecasting


Descriptive Note : Master's thesis


Corporate Author : NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL MONTEREY CA


Personal Author(s) : Gannon, Michael W


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a257717.pdf


Report Date : Sep 1992


Pagination or Media Count : 97


Abstract : This thesis examines the manner in which the technique of Bayesian analysis may be applied to the forecasting of cruise missile proliferation. Bayesian analysis is a quantitative procedure in which the alternative hypothetical outcomes are postulated and their prior probabilities estimate. As additional relevant events occur, the probabilities of their association with each hypothesis are used to calculate a revised probability for each alternative outcome. To support a sample analysis, this thesis traces the historical development of cruise missiles, discusses the various motivations for their acquisition or indigenous production by a developing nation, and identifies technologies crucial to the building of an advanced cruise missile system. After describing the Bayesian method and demonstrating its use in a theoretical example, the thesis concludes with some policy implications of cruise missile proliferation and its forecasting by the intelligence community.


Descriptors :   *INTELLIGENCE , *CRUISE MISSILES , DEVELOPING NATIONS , POLICIES , ACQUISITION , COMMUNITIES , BUILDINGS , THESES , MOTIVATION , ESTIMATES , FORECASTING , PROBABILITY , PRODUCTION , ORGANIZATIONS , NATIONS


Subject Categories : Military Intelligence
      Air- and Space-launched Guided Missiles


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE