Accession Number : ADA257440


Title :   A Model of U.S. Army Officer Retention Behavior


Descriptive Note : Final rept. Apr 1991-Apr 1992


Corporate Author : SAG CORP FALLS CHURCH VA


Personal Author(s) : Mairs, Lee S ; Mackin, Patrick C ; Hogan, Paul F ; Tinney, Robert


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a257440.pdf


Report Date : Sep 1992


Pagination or Media Count : 47


Abstract : This report summarizes the findings of a pilot study of the determinants of officer retention behavior. Stay-leave decisions for a sample of Air Defense Artillery officers were modeled in an ACOL-2 (panel probit) framework. The estimation showed that the officers were sensitive to changes in civilian and military pay, as well as to the condition of the civilian labor market. Retention behavior also varies by source of commission, gender, race, and marital status. Finally, the panel probit specification confirmed that unobserved heterogeneity had a significant impact. As officer cohorts age, the distribution of unobserved tastes for the military becomes truncated and retention rates rise. The study also included tests of alternative specifications for the pay variable and the size of the decision window, as well as an evaluation of the applicability of model results for a policy analysis model. The model will allow Army decision makers to track the effects of changes in policy, compensation, and economic conditions on the probability that officers will stay through key career decision points. Follow-on work will include estimating the model for all officers and increasing the number of decisions modeled.


Descriptors :   *POLICIES , *DECISION MAKING , *MODELS , *ACTIVE DUTY , *PERSONNEL RETENTION , *FIELD GRADE OFFICERS , *ECONOMETRICS , ARMY PERSONNEL , BEHAVIOR , UNEMPLOYMENT , LABOR MARKETS , COMPENSATION , PILOT STUDIES , MAXIMUM LIKELIHOOD ESTIMATION , DEMOGRAPHY , MANPOWER , SALARIES


Subject Categories : Economics and Cost Analysis
      Personnel Management and Labor Relations
      Military Forces and Organizations


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE