Accession Number : ADA255718


Title :   Evaluation of Relative Importance Judgment Methods in the Context of Causal Prediction


Descriptive Note : Interim rept. Oct 1988-Jan 1991


Corporate Author : ARMY RESEARCH INST FOR THE BEHAVIORAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCES ALEXANDRIA VA


Personal Author(s) : Hamm, Robert M


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a255718.pdf


Report Date : Aug 1992


Pagination or Media Count : 31


Abstract : This study investigated five methods for measuring the relative importance situational factors in predicting mission success in a planning context. The methods were ranking, 2-category rating (yes or no), ratio scale rating (magnitude estimation), probability change, and necessity or sufficiency judgments. Interpersonal agreement was highest using the probability change method. Comparison of the importance profiles produced by the various methods showed that ranking, rating, and yes or no were most similar to each other. Respondents indicated their preference among the methods and evaluated the methods' usefulness for a number of purposes. The ranking and probability change methods were most preferred and rated most useful.


Descriptors :   *PREDICTIONS , *PLANNING , *MISSIONS , MEASUREMENT , COMPARISON , RANKING , NUMBERS , AGREEMENTS , PROFILES , PROBABILITY , RATIOS


Subject Categories : Military Operations, Strategy and Tactics


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE