Accession Number : ADA144719


Title :   Influential Observations in Time Series.


Descriptive Note : Technical summary rept.,


Corporate Author : WISCONSIN UNIV-MADISON MATHEMATICS RESEARCH CENTER


Personal Author(s) : Pena,D


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a144719.pdf


Report Date : Jul 1984


Pagination or Media Count : 35


Abstract : This paper studies how to identify influential observations in univariate ARIMA time series models and how to measure their effects on the estimated parameters of the model. The sensitivity of the parameters to the presence of either additive or innovational outliers is analyzed, and influence statistics based on the Mahalanobis distance are presented. The statistic linked to additive outliers is shown to be very useful to indicate the robustness of the fitted model to the given data set. Its application is illustrated using simulation results and a relevant set of historical data. (Author)


Descriptors :   *MATHEMATICAL MODELS , *TIME SERIES ANALYSIS , SIMULATION , STATISTICS


Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE