Accession Number : ADA119788

Title :   Cost Functions for Airframe Production Programs.

Descriptive Note : Final rept.,


Personal Author(s) : Womer,N Keith ; Gulledge,Thomas R

Full Text :

Report Date : Jul 1982

Pagination or Media Count : 201

Abstract : The research objectives were: (a) develop, test, and illustrate the use of a significant new approach to estimating the cost of an airframe production program using already collected data on Air Force airframes; and (b) provide the Air Force with a calibrated tool capable of providing timely answers to significant problems of program management. The researcher developed a model based on the four production cost drivers of learning by doing, learning over time, the speed of the production line, and production line length. It focuses on the production of an individual airframe as a function of its start date and its planned delivery date, and includes technical features of both the airframe production program and the contractor's behavior. The model is estimated from data on the C-141 program, and is used to evaluate the effect of several small changes to the delivery schedule for the C-141. This analysis shows the sensitivity of the model to delivery schedule changes. It also illustrates one of the important ways that the model may be used in program management. A detailed investigation of estimating the model on data from other programs revealed that its parameters are very stable from one program to another, and the parameters can be estimated from early actual data on a new program. Ways to combine the model with a cost estimating relation (CER) and update these estimates with early actual data are discussed in this report. These techniques are applied to data from the F-102 program and the F-5/T-38 program.

Descriptors :   *Cost estimates , *Cost analysis , *Airframes , *Cost models , *Industrial production , Mathematical models , Manufacturing , Jet transport aircraft , Cargo

Subject Categories : Transport Aircraft
      Economics and Cost Analysis
      Numerical Mathematics

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE