Accession Number : ADA099778


Title :   Forecasting Skill


Descriptive Note : Technical note


Corporate Author : AIR WEATHER SERVICE SCOTT AFB IL


Personal Author(s) : German, Kenneth E


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a099778.pdf


Report Date : Jan 1981


Pagination or Media Count : 51


Abstract : The accuracy of centrally produced prognoses has improved throughout the past 20 years; however, several studies have shown negligible improvement in weather forecasting. Available data, more than 100 journal articles, were reviewed to independently evaluate weather forecasting improvement. Overall forecasting skill improved for most weather elements; however, improvement was not obtained by all. This led to a review of other factors (education, experience, interest, and procedures) that might be important in determining forecasting skill. After basic education and experience have been achieved (2-3 months), the main factor contributing to forecasting skill was found to be forecaster motivation. The AWS emphasis on accurate weather forecasting apparently has been effective, and should be continued.


Descriptors :   *FORECASTING , *SKILLS , *WEATHER FORECASTING , METEOROLOGY , WEATHER


Subject Categories : Meteorology


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE