Accession Number : ADA099503


Title :   Variants of Uncertainty


Descriptive Note : Technical rept. Jan 1980-Apr 1981


Corporate Author : STANFORD UNIV CA DEPT OF PSYCHOLOGY


Personal Author(s) : Kahneman, Daniel ; Tversky, Amos


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a099503.pdf


Report Date : 15 May 1981


Pagination or Media Count : 31


Abstract : In contrast to formal theories of judgment and decision, which employ a single notion of probability, psychological analyses of responses to uncertainty reveal a wide variety of processes and experiences, which may follow different rules. Elementary forms of expectation and surprise in perception are reviewed. A phenomenological analysis is described, which distinguishes external attributions of uncertainty (disposition) from internal attributions of uncertainty (ignorance). Assessments of uncertainty can be made in different modes, by focusing on frequencies, propensities, the strength of arguments, or direct experiences of confidence. These variants of uncertainty are associated with different expressions in natural language; they are also suggestive of competing philosophical interpretations of probability.


Descriptors :   *JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY) , DECISION MAKING , PROBABILITY , VARIATIONS , PERCEPTION(PSYCHOLOGY)


Subject Categories : Psychology


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE