Accession Number : ADA086987


Title :   Aggregating and Communicating Uncertainty.


Descriptive Note : Final technical rept.,


Corporate Author : PATTERN ANALYSIS AND RECOGNITION CORP ROME NY


Personal Author(s) : Morris,John M ; D'Amore,Raymond J


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/a086987.pdf


Report Date : Apr 1980


Pagination or Media Count : 385


Abstract : Strategic intelligence products contain a substantial element of uncertainty which must be communicated to the consumer if they are to be used effectively. As a social science, estimative intelligence uses methods which are largely global or intuitive in nature. Subjective probability assessments may be produced forthese methods, combined, tested for consistency, and communicated to the consumer using techniques described in this report. Two computer-based demonstration systems, the Calibration Assessment Package (CAP) and Subjective Probability Assessments (SPA), are described. General descriptions of several additional systems for data base management and probability assessment are also included.


Descriptors :   *PROBABILITY , *ESTIMATES , *STRATEGIC INTELLIGENCE , DATA BASES , DATA MANAGEMENT , DECISION THEORY , JUDGEMENT(PSYCHOLOGY)


Subject Categories : Statistics and Probability
      Military Intelligence


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE