Accession Number : AD1052799


Title :   The Cloudy Crystal Ball: Detecting and Disrupting Homegrown Violent Extremism


Descriptive Note : Technical Report


Corporate Author : Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States


Personal Author(s) : Pendley, James A


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1052799.pdf


Report Date : 01 Mar 2018


Pagination or Media Count : 107


Abstract : Homegrown violent extremism (HVE) is unpredictable, but not completely absent of warning signs. This thesis evaluates how potential homegrown extremists can be identified before an attack occurs, and the use of preventive detention is considered for preempting violent acts. An evaluation of recent HVE incidentsincluding the Boston Marathon bombing, Charleston church shooting, San Bernardino shooting, Orlando Nightclub massacre, and Fort Lauderdale airport attackreveals threat investigation gaps. Without a crystal ball, it is unlikely investigators could have predicted violence in these cases, but opportunities for improvement were found in hindsight. This thesis argues multidisciplinary teams (MDTs) and threat assessment tools can contribute to better outcomes in the future. Research in this thesis indicates MDTs using risk assessment instruments can add value to programs that attempt to identify individuals who are more likely to commit extremism-inspired violence, but these techniques lack the precision necessary to justify preventive detention. This thesis introduces and recommends the use of a trusted contact model to visualize how stakeholders in an MDT framework interact. This thesis also recommends a threat assessment matrix to prioritize intervention efforts. The threat assessment matrix aligns a persons radical belief system with evidence of violent behavior to manage potential risks.


Descriptors :   terrorists , violence , threats , risk management , counterterrorism , law enforcement , mental health , teams (personnel) , lessons learned , models , criminal investigations , terrorism , human behavior , national security , risk factors


Subject Categories : Unconventional Warfare
      Sociology and Law


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE