Accession Number : AD1052754


Title :   Nations at Risk-- Indicators of Fragility in States Susceptible to Terrorist Attacks


Descriptive Note : Technical Report


Corporate Author : Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States


Personal Author(s) : Kuessner, Fabian U


Full Text : https://apps.dtic.mil/dtic/tr/fulltext/u2/1052754.pdf


Report Date : 01 Mar 2018


Pagination or Media Count : 95


Abstract : Using cross-national data from 20062016 and 174 states, this thesis details an investigation of the relationship between state fragility and the incidence of terrorism. The approach is threefold. The first step adapts the most common methodology from the literature, the negative binomial regression model, to reproduce existing outcomes by taking advantage of today's availability of broader data. However, as terrorism is endogenous to state fragility, I use the Arellano-BondEstimator in the second step to overcome the reverse causality bias in this fragility-terrorism nexus. The last step, a comparison of the outcomes of my two methodologies, finds the problems arising from this reverse causality bias are too substantial to use negative binomial regression as an appropriate model to derive strategies for policy makers. Moreover, the outcomes show that economic inequality and factionalization along ethnic and religious lines are root causes for terrorism, and that terrorism itself leads to more terrorism in the future. Additionally, my research finds that the influx of refugees has no impact on the occurrence of terrorism in the short term. However, subject to a society's capacity to assimilate groups, migration flows can have implications for the occurrence of terrorism over time.


Descriptors :   terrorism , terrorists , resilience , models , indicators , government (foreign) , regression analysis , estimators , failed states , economics , data analysis , security , societies , public policy , migration , inequalities , religion , ethnic groups


Subject Categories : Government and Political Science
      Unconventional Warfare
      Statistics and Probability


Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE