Accession Number : AD1046838

Title :   Aircraft Evaluation Using Stochastic Duels

Descriptive Note : Technical Report

Corporate Author : Naval Postgraduate School Monterey United States

Personal Author(s) : Gay,Jason W

Full Text :

Report Date : 01 Sep 2017

Pagination or Media Count : 131

Abstract : Our thesis presents a modeling paradigm that uses stochastic duels to evaluate the performance of fighter aircraft in one-on-one air combats. The main thrust distinguishing our work is the combination of stochastic models, kinematics, and flight theories to represent the dynamics of a one-on-one air duel between two opposing fighter aircraft. We consider the duel in two phases, starting from a beyond-visual-range engagement to a close-range dogfight. The main contribution of our research is a stochastic model that directly relates physical characteristics of the two aircraft to compute their mission-level performance. The model is able to capture sufficient fidelity of the air duel without losing its analytical tractability. We illustrate our model using a numerical example featuring two actual dissimilar fighter aircraft, followed by a sensitivity analysis using smart experimental design methods. Our analysis reveals that the engagement time at beyond-visual range, single shot kill probability, aircraft velocity, flight velocity during a dogfight, and the maximum load factor of an aircraft are influential in determining the win probability of each aircraft in an air duel.

Descriptors :   probability , aerial warfare , test and evaluation , performance(engineering) , jet fighter aircraft , kinematics , flight control systems , investment , naval budgets , cost effectiveness , naval procurement , decision making

Subject Categories : Attack and Fighter Aircraft
      Logistics, Military Facilities and Supplies

Distribution Statement : APPROVED FOR PUBLIC RELEASE